For comparison purposes data from the Thyssen-financial model Transrapid Hamburg-Berlin are presented as well. This model originates from 1993. Escalation of construction cost respects price estimations as of December 1998. Traffic prognostics for Transrapid corresponds to: E. Jänsch, ETR 47 (1998), p. 746. AUTOSHUTTLE would be built from 2010 on and start operation in 2015. The escalation rate per year is 2%.
Target value is the minimum changeover
quote from the motorway to Autoshuttle with which non-subsidised and profitable
building and operation is possible.
| Transrapid | AUTOSHUTTLE | Comment for AUTOSHUTTLE: | ||||
| Hamburg-Berlin | Breitscheid-Cologne | |||||
| stations |
5
|
10
|
km | |||
| line length |
291
|
km |
56
|
km | ||
| main tracks |
582
|
km |
112
|
km | ||
| added station tracks |
0
|
km |
30
|
km | ||
| storage tracks |
8
|
km |
12
|
km | ||
| total track length |
590
|
km |
154
|
km | ||
| cost (Mio. EUR): | per km: | per km: | ||||
| guideway+special constructions |
2,238
|
3.79
|
price level for infrastructure and vehicles: 1998 | |||
| elevated track |
74
|
10
|
58 bridges | |||
| track on ground |
78
|
0.4
|
rail s.b. | |||
| ramps, bridges, dams |
17
|
0.7
|
||||
| cuts subways |
26
|
3
|
29 subways | |||
| supporting rails |
19
|
0.1
|
iron rails | |||
| traction cables |
627
|
1.06
|
44
|
0.23
|
||
| land purchase |
351
|
0.59
|
24
|
28
|
EUR/m² | |
| points |
259
|
0.44
|
||||
| roads |
108
|
1
|
45
|
|||
| emvironmental realignments |
1
|
|||||
| energy supply system |
635
|
275
|
||||
| buildings |
213
|
60
|
stations, workshop, administration | |||
| control systems |
141
|
54
|
||||
| planning |
245
|
71
|
||||
| number of vehicles |
11
|
1,862
|
20%
|
out of which are lorry and bus-cabins | ||
| cost (vehicles) |
208
|
283
|
60,000.- EUR per car-cabin, | |||
| 530,000.- EUR per lorry/bus-cabin | ||||||
| total cost (dec93) |
4,353
|
|||||
| total cost (dec98) |
4,806
|
start build | ||||
| total building cost (feb08) |
1,233
|
start build | ||||
| start operation after years: |
10
|
4
|
||||
| total indebtedness: |
5,859
|
1,334
|
||||
| annual credit cost with | ||||||
| 7.5% interest and 25 years term | ||||||
| Credit period: |
520
|
112
|
||||
| operational cost: | cost level operational cost: 2002 | |||||
| dispatch, train formation |
24
|
9.5
|
staff: 178 | |||
| energy |
44
|
10
|
0.06 EUR/kWh | |||
| maintenance wayside |
6
|
3.5
|
material only, staff see above | |||
| maintenance vehicles |
7.5
|
8
|
material only, staff see above | |||
| spare parts |
11.5
|
included in maintenance | ||||
| insurances |
8.5
|
4
|
||||
| total (dec93): |
101
|
|||||
| total (jan02): |
36
|
|||||
| total(start operation): |
136
|
44
|
in 2012 | |||
| total cost / year: |
656
|
155
|
||||
| traffic volume in | ||||||
| first year of operation: | transition rate to AUTOSHUTTLE for cost-coverage 1 in first operation year: 33% | |||||
| veh./day (explanation s. b.) |
46,116
|
|||||
| passengers/day (s. b.) |
22,190
|
78,766
|
||||
| goods/day(to) |
0
|
41,320
|
||||
| P_resp.veh.km/year(Mio) |
2,357
|
943
|
||||
| Revenues | Average value: (5% cheaper than equiv. fuel cost + heavyweight tax for Germany) | |||||
| (15% cheaper than self-driving) | ||||||
| (fares in EUR) | car | lorry/bus | fraction lorry | |||
| fare/km/cab. jan2002 |
0.14
|
0.07
|
0.30
|
0.28
|
||
| fare/km/person jan2002 |
0.15
|
0.06
|
in a car at 1,2 people per car | |||
| fare/km at start operation |
0.17
|
0.16
|
per vehicle | |||
| (revenues in Mio. EUR) | ||||||
| revenues from tickets in | ||||||
| 1. year of operation: |
394
|
155
|
||||
| cost coverage ratio | ||||||
| in 1. year of operation: |
0.60
|
1.00
|
||||
| in 25. year of operation: |
1.00
|
Credit paid, deduct. paid from profits | ||||
| from 26. year on: |
2.63
|
Deduction is subtracted | ||||
Explanations for the number of road vehicles per day:
1. source: Auswertung der Verkehrsstärken
DTV auf der A3 Oberhausen-Köln für 1999, Ministerium für
Verkehr NRW, Düsseldorf, 2000 Number of vehicles per day at the 13
automatic counters of the section Breitscheider Kreuz - Köln Königsforst
Weighted average values:
Count cars, all days: 102,747 veh/day;
lorries, all days: 15,111 veh/day.
average value of lorry partition "all
days": 0.118
2. source:Verkehrsprognose des Bundesverkehrsministeriums
2000 Average value scenarios "Trend" and "Integration". Average increase
goods traffic and total goods traffic. Fuel consumption decrease
compensates real fuel cost increase.
Road: 1997: 750 Mio. Pkm, Goods 236 Mio.
Tkm, 2015: 873 Mio. Pkm, Goods long distance 401 Mio. Tkm
This yields for 2012 assuming an equalised
annual increase:
Count cars, all days 116,995 veh/day;
lorry, all days: 22,750 veh/day total: 139,745 veh/day; lorry partition:
16.3%
Explanation for passengers per day:
Averaged patronage of cars: 1,4 people
(against 1,7 acc. to E. Jänsch, eb 93 (1995) 1/2, 25)
Averaged patronage of all buses (estimated
10% of lorry-fraction): 25 people