AUTOSHUTTLE
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Annex A10: Financial Study of an Autoshuttle Line Duisburg (Breitscheider Kreuz) - Hilden - Leverkusen - Cologne – Königsforst

For comparison purposes data from the Thyssen-financial model Transrapid Hamburg-Berlin are presented as well. This model originates from 1993. Escalation of construction cost respects price estimations as of December 1998. Traffic prognostics for Transrapid corresponds to: E. Jänsch, ETR 47 (1998), p. 746. AUTOSHUTTLE would be built from 2010 on and start operation in 2015. The escalation rate per year is 2%.

Target value is the minimum changeover quote from the motorway to Autoshuttle with which non-subsidised and profitable building and operation is possible.
 

  Transrapid   AUTOSHUTTLE   Comment for AUTOSHUTTLE:
  Hamburg-Berlin   Breitscheid-Cologne      
stations
5
 
10
km    
line length
291
km
56
km    
main tracks
582
km
112
km    
added station tracks
0
km
30
km    
storage tracks
8
km
12
km    
total track length
590
km
154
km     
             
cost (Mio. EUR):   per km:   per km:    
guideway+special constructions
2,238
3.79
    price level for infrastructure and vehicles: 1998 
elevated track    
74
10
58 bridges
track on ground    
78
0.4
rail s.b.  
ramps, bridges, dams    
17
0.7
 
cuts subways    
26
3
29 subways
supporting rails    
19
0.1
iron rails 
traction cables
627
1.06
44
0.23
 
land purchase
351
0.59
24
28
EUR/m²   
points
259
0.44
     
roads
108
 
1
45
   
emvironmental realignments    
1
     
             
energy supply system
635
 
275
   
             
buildings
213
 
60
  stations, workshop, administration 
control systems
141
 
54
   
planning
245
 
71
   
             
number of vehicles
11
 
1,862
20%
out of which are lorry and bus-cabins 
cost (vehicles)
208
 
283
  60,000.- EUR per car-cabin, 
          530,000.- EUR per lorry/bus-cabin 
total cost (dec93)
4,353
         
total cost (dec98)
4,806
      start build
total building cost (feb08)    
1,233
  start build
start operation after years:
10
 
4
     
total indebtedness:
5,859
 
1,334
     
annual credit cost with             
7.5% interest and 25 years term            
Credit period:
520
 
112
     
             
operational cost:         cost level operational cost: 2002
dispatch, train formation
24
 
9.5
  staff: 178 
energy
44
 
10
  0.06 EUR/kWh
maintenance wayside
6
 
3.5
  material only, staff see above 
maintenance vehicles
7.5
 
8
  material only, staff see above 
spare parts
11.5
      included in  maintenance 
insurances
8.5
 
4
   
total (dec93):
101
         
total (jan02):    
36
     
total(start operation):
136
 
44
  in 2012  
             
total cost / year:
656
 
155
     
traffic volume in            
first year of operation:       transition rate to AUTOSHUTTLE for cost-coverage 1 in first operation year: 33%
veh./day (explanation s. b.)    
46,116
passengers/day (s. b.)
22,190
 
78,766
     
goods/day(to)
0
 
41,320
     
P_resp.veh.km/year(Mio)
2,357
 
943
     
Revenues       Average value: (5% cheaper than equiv. fuel cost + heavyweight tax for Germany)
(15% cheaper than self-driving)            
(fares in EUR)       car lorry/bus fraction lorry
fare/km/cab. jan2002    
0.14
0.07
0.30
0.28
fare/km/person jan2002
0.15
 
0.06
in a car at 1,2 people per car 
fare/km at start operation
0.17
 
0.16
per vehicle 
(revenues in Mio. EUR)            
revenues from tickets in            
1. year of operation:
394
 
155
     
cost coverage ratio            
in 1. year of operation:
0.60
 
1.00
     
in 25. year of operation:    
1.00
Credit paid, deduct. paid from profits 
from 26. year on:    
2.63
Deduction is subtracted 

Explanations for the number of road vehicles per day:

1. source: Auswertung der Verkehrsstärken DTV auf der A3 Oberhausen-Köln für 1999, Ministerium für Verkehr NRW, Düsseldorf, 2000 Number of vehicles per day at the 13 automatic counters of the section Breitscheider Kreuz - Köln Königsforst
Weighted average values:
Count cars, all days: 102,747 veh/day; lorries, all days: 15,111 veh/day.
average value of lorry partition "all days": 0.118

2. source:Verkehrsprognose des Bundesverkehrsministeriums 2000 Average value scenarios "Trend" and "Integration". Average increase goods traffic and total  goods traffic. Fuel consumption decrease compensates real fuel cost increase.
Road: 1997: 750 Mio. Pkm, Goods 236 Mio. Tkm, 2015: 873 Mio. Pkm, Goods long distance 401 Mio. Tkm
This yields for 2012 assuming an equalised annual increase:
Count cars, all days 116,995 veh/day; lorry, all days: 22,750 veh/day total: 139,745 veh/day; lorry partition: 16.3%

Explanation for passengers per day:

Averaged patronage of cars: 1,4 people (against 1,7 acc. to E. Jänsch, eb 93 (1995) 1/2, 25)
Averaged patronage of all buses (estimated 10% of lorry-fraction): 25 people